Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:00:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2a0…7e90 other 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (240 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$85 (+0%) realized +$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate79%11W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,814per market
Trades / day240.5pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$630
sports 7% −$230
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (240 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -7.5% -16.3% 79% 21% -11.6%
≤30d 14 -7.5% -16.3% 79% 21% -11.6%
≤90d 14 -7.5% -16.3% 79% 21% -11.6%
all 14 -7.5% -16.3% 79% 21% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover240.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 21% -11.6%
10% -24.3% 0% -20.0%
15% ← realistic here -31.6% 0% -27.8%
20% -38.3% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
37.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$527 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses11 / 3
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2,814
Trades / day240.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $11,487 −$1,179 -10%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4,223 +$105 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15,732 +$305 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,434 +$19 +1%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 +$2 +16%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $165 −$165 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,600 −$238 -15%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $231 +$13 +5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,311 +$85 +6%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $207 +$11 +5%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $27 +$5 +19%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $703 +$142 +20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $772 +$15 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $500 +$20 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $377 6m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $351 8m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $14 8m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $3,225 10m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $3,199 10m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $3 10m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $2 14m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $17 14m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $0 14m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $89 14m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $12 14m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $4 14m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $1 14m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $2 14m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $2 14m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $40 14m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $6 14m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $18 14m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $0 14m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $40 14m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $158 14m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $4 14m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $8 14m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $42 14m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $1 14m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $0 14m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $0 14m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $27 14m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $60 14m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 12¢ $0 14m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 989 history records