Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:25:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A2
0xa29e…917f
other · 14 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$165 -31%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$150 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$24
Realized−$150
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)7 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day53.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%
Chart Positions 7 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$150
7 days−$150
14 days−$150
30 days−$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 20¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 −$1 -4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $52 −$2 -4%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $40 +$41 +102%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$21 +669%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $221 −$206 -93%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 85% −$226
sports 15% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 55m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 55m
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 56m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 56m
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 57m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 57m
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 1h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $12 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $24 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 62¢ $24 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 1h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $81 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 3h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 3h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $45 3h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $45 3h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+64.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +81.7% +64.4% 29% 29% -39.1%
≤30d 7 +81.7% +64.4% 29% 29% -39.1%
≤90d 7 +81.7% +64.4% 29% 29% -39.1%
all 7 +81.7% +64.4% 29% 29% -39.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover53.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +64.4% 29% -39.1%
10% ← realistic here +48.6% 29% -44.9%
15% +34.3% 29% -50.3%
20% +21.1% 29% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.31 · official $24.31 (match) · 53 history records