Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:08:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa29c…74d9 politics 182 markets active 1d ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,728 (+1%) realized +$1,726 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate23%41W / 140L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,596per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$187
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$165
other 33% +$40
sports 17% +$1,743
world 3% −$19
culture 3% −$11
crypto 1% +$2
tech 1% −$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 53 -1.9% -11.3% 8% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 118 -4.4% -13.5% 8% 5% -9.0%
all 181 +1.1% -8.5% 23% 9% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 9% -9.0%
10% -17.3% 9% -17.7%
15% -25.2% 9% -25.7%
20% -32.6% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,795) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$21 · ×5.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized+$1,726
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses41 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions1
Markets (closed)181 / 182
History coverage142d
Avg bet$1,596
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $184 $185 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $3,263 −$4 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $1,687 −$2 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $1,563 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,684 −$3 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,659 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $1,566 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $3,273 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $7,335 −$11 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $4,259 −$5 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 09 $1,151 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,392 −$4 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $3,514 −$5 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $4,352 −$5 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,581 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,026 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,652 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,691 −$4 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $4,356 −$5 -0%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $41 −$41 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $62 +$128 +206%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,528 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,320 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,613 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $825 +$2 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,391 −$3 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $1,380 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $2,667 −$4 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $8,675 −$9 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,966 −$3 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $806 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,398 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,156 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $5,277 −$7 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $1,057 −$1 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 26 $83 +$66 +79%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $2,274 −$3 -0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $59 +$70 +119%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $1,645 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 23 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,349 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 20 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? May 20 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $4,375 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,652 27h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,654 29h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,685 30h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,687 33h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,560 3d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,563 3d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,682 4d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,684 5d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,657 6d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,659 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,564 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,566 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,640 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,643 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,561 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,564 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,467 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,469 7d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $1,149 8d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $1,151 8d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,381 8d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,383 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $184 8d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,591 9d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,594 9d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,523 9d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,525 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,310 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,312 10d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,579 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.40 · official $185.40 (match) · 614 history records