Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:42:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa29b…fb1f crypto 533 markets active 1h ago coverage 175d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 175d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$838 (+1%) realized +$838 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate64%349W / 199L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 175d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,072
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -14.0% -22.2% 53% 45% -24.7%
≤30d 108 -20.8% -28.3% 52% 38% -27.4%
≤90d 410 -6.3% -15.2% 54% 31% -15.2%
all 548 -3.8% -13.0% 64% 32% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 32% -11.6%
10% -21.3% 22% -20.0%
15% -28.9% 16% -27.7%
20% -35.9% 12% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$60 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$838
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses349 / 199
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)548 / 533
History coverage175d ⚠
Avg bet$123
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 548 Trades
no open positions (189 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - December 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $246 −$246 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 24, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 19 $249 −$249 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $248 −$248 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $237 −$237 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $247 −$247 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $249 −$249 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $249 −$249 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $250 −$250 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $249 −$249 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $182 −$182 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $247 −$247 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $265 −$265 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $249 −$249 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $249 −$249 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $216 −$216 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $132 +$54 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $34 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$9 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $258 +$600 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $491 +$264 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $35 +$44 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $906 +$617 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $125 +$24 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$104 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $292 +$201 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$34 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $172 +$30 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $137 +$19 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $57 +$35 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $45 −$43 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $105 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $105 +$54 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $17 +$9 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$29 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $54 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $399 +$25 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $329 +$33 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $68 −$67 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $92 +$51 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $57 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $57 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $34 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $13 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $15 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $13 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $7 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $22 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $24 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $7 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $31 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $31 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $31 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $14 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records