Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:43:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa29a…09c7 sports 143 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,427 (+86%) realized +$1,469 · open −$42
Gross ROI / mkt +104% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +57% what you keep after slip
Net edge+57%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate69%42W / 19L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day67.2pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$695now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$127
14 days+$171
30 days+$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$121
other 37% +$90
culture 15% −$16
politics 5% +$9
world 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+84.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +46.4% +32.4% 81% 62% +68.6%
≤30d 54 +114.5% +94.1% 69% 56% +38.6%
≤90d 61 +104.2% +84.7% 69% 57% +32.0%
all 61 +104.2% +84.7% 69% 57% +32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +84.7% 57% +32.0%
10% ← realistic here +67.1% 48% +19.4%
15% +50.9% 39% +7.9%
20% +36.1% 28% -2.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +104% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +138% → late +71% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.71 per $1 lost it wins $5.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$695
Realized+$1,469
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses42 / 19
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions84
Markets (closed)61 / 143
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day67.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 84 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $90 $79 −$11 (-13%)
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $72 $67 −$5 (-7%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $36 $34 −$2 (-6%)
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Yes $18 $29 +$11 (+60%)
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $25 $28 +$2 (+9%)
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes $30 $27 −$2 (-8%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $29 $24 −$5 (-18%)
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Yes $13 $21 +$8 (+65%)
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $21 $18 −$3 (-13%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $16 +$4 (+36%)
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes $33 $14 −$18 (-56%)
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes $13 $14 +$1 (+7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $13 −$5 (-26%)
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Yes $11 $12 +$1 (+11%)
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes $9 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $9 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $7 $8 +$1 (+13%)
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes $6 $8 +$2 (+25%)
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $7 $8 +$1 (+12%)
Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Yes $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Yes $7 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Will The Weeknd be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $13 −$8 -63%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $3 +$1 +41%
Will Jack Draper be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 21 $0 $0 +16%
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 21 $9 +$9 +100%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 20 $1 $0 +41%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $80 +$106 +133%
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $4 $0 +6%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $4 $0 -4%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $6 +$2 +34%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -63%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +46%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +62%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $3 +$3 +90%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 17 $5 +$13 +291%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $2 +$6 +396%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +54%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $32 +$6 +19%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $11 +$11 +101%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $7 $0 -6%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $19 +$11 +59%
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general ele Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen Jun 12 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +488%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will Kendrick Lamar be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Jun 09 $1 +$3 +285%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 09 $19 −$2 -9%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +54%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 07 $28 +$14 +49%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO Jun 07 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -87%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close o Jun 07 $4 +$2 +45%
Will Frederik Andersen win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Jack Eichel win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? Jun 05 $4 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $27 +$9 +32%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 03 $1 $0 +3%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $3 $0 +13%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $13 $0 -2%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $1 +$24 +3028%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $1 +$22 +1911%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close o May 31 $2 −$1 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Parti conservateur du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebe SELL Yes $0 22m
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will the Chicago Blackhawks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ BUY Yes $0 2h
Will the Anaheim Ducks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham BUY Yes $1 2h
Will the Calgary Flames be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha SELL Yes $2 17h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 19h
Will the Colorado Avalanche be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ SELL Yes 10¢ $23 21h
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 21h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 21h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 21h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 21h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $0 23h
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes $1 26h
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes $1 26h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 29h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 31h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 31h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 31h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 31h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 31h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 31h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 31h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 31h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 32h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 34h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 34h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 35h
Will the Colorado Avalanche be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ SELL Yes 11¢ $3 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $695.04 · official $695.05 (match) · 3500 history records