Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa299…ac77 other 1015 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,243 (-8%) realized −$2,243 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%392W / 621L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day31.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit3%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$310
7 days−$743
14 days−$1,574
30 days−$1,832
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$2,382
world 2% +$26
sports 1% −$30
crypto 1% −$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -36.2% -42.3% 28% 28% -39.1%
≤30d 480 -9.4% -18.0% 38% 37% -17.0%
≤90d 1013 -11.8% -20.2% 39% 38% -16.4%
all 1013 -11.8% -20.2% 39% 38% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 38% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 35% -24.4%
15% -34.8% 30% -31.7%
20% -41.2% 25% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$21 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$2,243
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses392 / 621
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1013 / 1015
History coverage62d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day31.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit3%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1013 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 368 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $66 +$32 +48%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $62 +$13 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $42 +$21 +49%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $192 −$166 -87%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 −$84 -83%
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $77 −$56 -73%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$7 -45%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $56 −$39 -70%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $80 −$55 -68%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$48 +90%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -96%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $39 −$32 -83%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $29 −$21 -74%
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 +$81 +442%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $67 +$25 +38%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$12 -55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $75 −$57 -76%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $165 −$164 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$43 +105%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $184 −$156 -85%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $52 −$33 -63%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $49 +$77 +158%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $122 +$38 +31%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $66 +$22 +34%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $52 +$17 +33%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $27 +$31 +114%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $16 −$7 -44%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $67 −$37 -56%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $15 +$9 +59%
Will Liberia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $18 +$7 +41%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -90%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $43 −$36 -85%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $58 −$50 -86%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $18 −$16 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $97 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $76 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $62 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $42 9h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 7¢ $25 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 6¢ $17 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $26 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 27h
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 27h
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.00 · official $81.00 (match) · 2024 history records