Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:50:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa294…2edd other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate37%23W / 39L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$380per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$13
other 24% +$1
sports 6% −$1
economics 3% −$1
culture 3% −$1
crypto 3% +$5
tech 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 62 +0.3% -9.3% 37% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 2% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$700) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses23 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage261d
Avg bet$380
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $210 $210 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in March 2026? Mar 10 $220 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 February 16-22? Feb 26 $210 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026 Feb 19 $215 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? Feb 11 $218 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? Feb 04 $208 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Jan 28 $213 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? Jan 21 $216 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 600-639 tweets in January 2026? Jan 14 $212 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets in January 2026? Jan 07 $208 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Dec 31 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 24 $214 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 17 $210 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? Dec 10 $206 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in November? Dec 03 $102 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Dec 03 $110 +$4 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? Nov 17 $113 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025 Nov 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 09 $123 $0 -0%
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025? Nov 05 $151 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Nov 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will Meteora launch a token in 2025? Oct 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 27 $175 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 23 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 21 $150 $0 -0%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 19 $180 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 19 $3 $0 -13%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Oct 17 $170 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will Giorgia Meloni be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 13 $180 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 12 $199 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 11 $120 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 11 $500 −$1 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $700 −$1 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 10 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win on 2025-10-09? Oct 10 $1 $0 +4%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Oct 09 $700 −$1 -0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 09 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 09 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $700 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $1,120 −$1 -0%
Jazz vs. Rockets Oct 09 $1 $0 +24%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8? Oct 09 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 09 $100 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 08 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 08 $500 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $210 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 42d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $220 119d
Will Solana dip to $20 February 16-22? BUY No 100¢ $210 126d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $215 134d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $218 141d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $208 148d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $145 155d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $69 155d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $216 162d
Will Elon Musk post 600-639 tweets in January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $212 169d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets in January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $208 176d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 183d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 BUY No 100¢ $214 190d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY No 100¢ $210 197d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $206 204d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in November? BUY No 100¢ $102 209d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? BUY No 96¢ $110 216d
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? SELL No 100¢ $113 220d
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? BUY No 100¢ $113 220d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $200 224d
Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31? SELL No 100¢ $123 228d
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025? SELL No 100¢ $82 232d
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025? SELL No 99¢ $7 232d
Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $123 232d
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025? SELL No 100¢ $10 232d
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025? SELL No 100¢ $23 236d
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025? SELL No 100¢ $19 236d
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025? SELL No 100¢ $9 236d
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025? SELL No 100¢ $1 236d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.69 · official $209.69 (match) · 145 history records