Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:27:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa291…df70 crypto 816 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$779 (+5%) realized +$776 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate44%389W / 493L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day91.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$453
7 days−$453
14 days−$453
30 days−$425
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 233 -29.9% -36.5% 30% 7% -18.9%
≤30d 847 -7.3% -16.1% 44% 16% -12.3%
≤90d 882 -6.1% -15.1% 44% 17% -12.0%
all 882 -6.1% -15.1% 44% 17% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 17% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 7% -20.4%
15% -30.6% 5% -28.1%
20% -37.4% 4% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$776
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses389 / 493
Open positions1
Markets (closed)882 / 816
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day91.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 882 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 0¢ 32¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 135 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $13 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $17 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $11 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $13 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $6 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.46 · official $5.55 · 3500 history records