Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:42:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa291…0d81 sports 943 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-1%) realized −$56 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%492W / 446L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day60.6pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$47
14 days+$36
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 +8.5% -1.9% 59% 59% -1.2%
≤30d 938 -2.9% -12.2% 52% 52% -12.6%
≤90d 938 -2.9% -12.2% 52% 52% -12.6%
all 938 -2.9% -12.2% 52% 52% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 52% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 49% -20.9%
15% -28.2% 47% -28.6%
20% -35.3% 43% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses492 / 446
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions5
Markets (closed)938 / 943
History coverage28d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day60.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 938 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 45¢ 86¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+92%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 56¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+78%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Kinoa - Map 2 Winner Kinoa 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 415 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $3 +$3 +73%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $6 +$8 +120%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $4 +$2 +70%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $3 +$3 +75%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $3 +$3 +92%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$4 +116%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $3 +$5 +132%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$4 +109%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$2 +54%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$3 +73%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $3 +$4 +122%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $6 −$1 -18%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$2 +59%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$3 +95%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $7 −$1 -9%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$3 +84%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $3 +$2 +54%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$4 +123%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $4 +$2 +69%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $3 +$4 +109%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$4 +108%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +78%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $3 +$2 +54%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$3 +93%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +86%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$2 +67%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$4 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 56¢ $3 41m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $3 55m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $5 56m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $3 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 45¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Refuser 100¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 57¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL GenOne 100¢ $7 10h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 40¢ $3 11h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 58¢ $4 12h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner SELL GenOne 99¢ $5 12h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 56¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 51¢ $3 14h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 63¢ $3 16h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 46¢ $3 17h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner SELL illwill 99¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 51¢ $3 19h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 65¢ $3 20h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 65¢ $3 21h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 65¢ $1 21h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 61¢ $3 24h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 65¢ $3 26h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 44¢ $2 27h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner SELL SPARTA 99¢ $4 36h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 61¢ $3 36h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $3 37h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Galions 99¢ $6 38h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Galions 99¢ $7 38h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 46¢ $3 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.16 · official $16.16 (match) · 2192 history records