Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:31:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

A2 0xa291…3fb4 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$139 (-24%) realized +$261 · open −$400

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%6W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$25per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit52%portable

Net worth$2,642now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$24

14 days+$24

30 days+$24

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-22.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+23.2%	+11.5%	50%	50%	+11.5%
≤30d	2	+23.2%	+11.5%	50%	50%	+11.5%
≤90d	17	-22.7%	-30.0%	29%	29%	-24.7%
all	18	-14.1%	-22.2%	33%	33%	-19.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-22.2%	33%	-19.7%
10%	-29.7%	33%	-27.4%
15%	-36.5%	33%	-34.4%
20%	-42.7%	33%	-40.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 48% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +20% → late -48% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$25 vs −$17 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.74 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage

Net worth$2,642

Realized+$261

Unrealized−$400

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses6 / 12

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions16

Markets (closed)18 / 23

History coverage172d

Avg bet$25

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 16 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	84¢	83¢	$253	$248	−$5 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	No	87¢	81¢	$261	$244	−$17 (-6%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	81¢	80¢	$243	$242	−$1 (-1%)
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?	Yes	78¢	78¢	$234	$236	+$2 (+1%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	77¢	77¢	$232	$230	−$2 (-1%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	79¢	66¢	$237	$196	−$40 (-17%)
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	No	70¢	64¢	$210	$194	−$16 (-8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	66¢	62¢	$198	$184	−$14 (-7%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	75¢	74¢	$172	$171	−$1 (-1%)
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	62¢	56¢	$184	$165	−$19 (-10%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	60¢	55¢	$180	$164	−$16 (-9%)
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	57¢	52¢	$171	$158	−$13 (-8%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	No	80¢	41¢	$187	$96	−$91 (-49%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	59¢	38¢	$78	$49	−$28 (-36%)
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	69¢	22¢	$132	$43	−$89 (-67%)
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?	No	71¢	24¢	$70	$23	−$47 (-67%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$51	+$37	+73%
Spread: France (-2.5)	Jun 22	$51	−$14	-27%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5	Apr 14	$24	−$24	-100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14?	Apr 14	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07?	Apr 14	$15	−$15	-100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)	Apr 14	$23	−$23	-100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?	Apr 14	$50	−$26	-51%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?	Apr 08	$25	+$18	+73%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-06?	Apr 07	$25	−$25	-100%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5	Apr 06	$20	−$2	-8%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Apr 05	$25	−$1	-4%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-05?	Apr 05	$20	+$35	+178%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score	Apr 05	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02?	Apr 05	$10	−$10	-100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?	Apr 04	$19	+$20	+105%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11?	Apr 04	$30	−$30	-100%
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score	Apr 04	$25	+$19	+76%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-08?	Jan 11	$17	+$23	+133%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	51¢	$28	1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	BUY Yes	19¢	$3	3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	BUY Yes	19¢	$7	3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	17¢	$31	3d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5	BUY Over	52¢	$30	5d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	35¢	$20	6d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	57¢	$51	6d
Spread: France (-2.5)	SELL France	43¢	$37	6d
Spread: France (-2.5)	BUY France	57¢	$51	6d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$21	76d
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)	BUY Real Madrid CF	51¢	$23	79d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?	SELL Yes	100¢	$43	81d
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	60¢	$24	82d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$20	82d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?	SELL Yes	20¢	$24	82d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07?	BUY Yes	23¢	$15	83d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$30	83d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-06?	BUY Yes	30¢	$25	84d
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	32¢	$18	84d
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	34¢	$20	84d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	SELL Yes	22¢	$24	84d
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-05?	SELL Yes	100¢	$55	84d
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-05?	BUY Yes	36¢	$20	84d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	23¢	$25	85d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?	BUY Yes	57¢	$25	85d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?	SELL Yes	100¢	$39	85d
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$44	85d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?	BUY Yes	48¢	$19	85d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	31¢	$15	85d
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	56¢	$25	86d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,642.32 · official $36.78 · 43 history records