Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:11:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa291…b9d6 crypto 33 markets active 7d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$175 (-54%) realized −$29 · open −$146
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day91.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$146
crypto 49% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-37.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -30.6% -37.2% 44% 28% -29.2%
≤30d 32 -30.6% -37.2% 44% 28% -29.2%
≤90d 32 -30.6% -37.2% 44% 28% -29.2%
all 32 -30.6% -37.2% 44% 28% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.2% 28% -29.2%
10% ← realistic here -43.2% 19% -36.0%
15% -48.7% 12% -42.2%
20% -53.7% 6% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$146
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage2d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day91.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $161 $14 −$146 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $23 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$4 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$5 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 6¢ $30 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.43 · official $14.43 (match) · 151 history records