Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:50:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa290…63b9 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16 (-14%) realized −$1 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$13
other 34% −$22
economics 5% +$1
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-35.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -95.3% -95.7% 0% 0% -98.5%
≤30d 5 -5.4% -14.4% 60% 60% -9.5%
≤90d 10 -32.2% -38.7% 40% 40% -35.6%
all 11 -28.3% -35.1% 45% 45% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.1% 45% -32.8%
10% -41.3% 27% -39.2%
15% -47.0% 18% -45.1%
20% -52.2% 9% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)11 / 19
History coverage103d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+30%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $9 +$2 +19%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $3 +$3 +104%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 25 $4 +$2 +41%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 08 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 14 $16 +$4 +23%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Mar 31 $7 −$1 -18%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Mar 09 $5 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY 19¢ $10 19h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 12d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 22d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 22d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 22d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 22d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 35¢ $6 22d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 22d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 39d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 48d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 49d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 64d
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 64d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 96¢ $19 64d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 70d
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 78d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 78¢ $16 81d
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 96d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 30¢ $6 99d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 27¢ $3 102d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 27¢ $3 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.12 · official $22.12 (match) · 54 history records