Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:35:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A2 0xa28e…0819 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$5 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate88%14W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$127
14 days+$127
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$16
other 19% −$2
politics 4% +$1
tech 3% +$1
world 2% $0
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +82.7% +65.3% 100% 100% +65.3%
≤30d 4 +41.5% +28.0% 75% 75% -6.1%
≤90d 11 +14.6% +3.7% 82% 45% -10.8%
all 16 +10.6% +0.1% 88% 31% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 31% -10.6%
10% -9.5% 31% -19.1%
15% -18.3% 25% -27.0%
20% -26.3% 25% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$186 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses14 / 2
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage168d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $219 $217 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $153 +$127 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $265 −$262 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $93 +$60 +65%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $82 +$98 +119%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 14 $111 −$110 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $25 +$16 +65%
Thunder vs. Suns May 07 $244 +$56 +23%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 21 $13 $0 +3%
Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026? Apr 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 21 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)? Apr 21 $23 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $330 end of January? Feb 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? Feb 12 $24 +$1 +2%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win more than 26% of votes in the first round Jan 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will Trump make no announcement by December 31 to replace Lisa Cook? Jan 07 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $223 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $153 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $265 15d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $93 20d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 45¢ $82 25d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 61¢ $111 34d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 60¢ $25 41d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Thunder 81¢ $244 51d
Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 100d
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $13 105d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 97¢ $19 109d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 99¢ $23 125d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 95¢ $14 140d
Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? BUY No 98¢ $24 144d
Will Luís Marques Mendes win more than 26% of votes in the first round BUY No 99¢ $20 154d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $330 end of January? BUY No 100¢ $20 160d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $330 end of January? BUY No 100¢ $3 161d
Will Trump make no announcement by December 31 to replace Lisa Cook? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 168d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.63 · official $216.63 (match) · 32 history records