Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:57:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa28c…ca58 crypto 488 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate91%444W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$12
other 0% −$8
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -18.8% -26.6% 75% 19% -26.6%
≤30d 96 -4.8% -13.9% 89% 22% -13.3%
≤90d 488 -1.6% -11.0% 91% 18% -10.5%
all 488 -1.6% -11.0% 91% 18% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 18% -10.5%
10% -19.5% 4% -19.1%
15% -27.3% 2% -26.9%
20% -34.4% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses444 / 44
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)488 / 488
History coverage76d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 488 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 03 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 02 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 01 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 01 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 01 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 01 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 01 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 01 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 01 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 01 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 01 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 01 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 01 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 01 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 31 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 30 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 30 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 30 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 30 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 30 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 30 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 29 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 28 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 28 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 28 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 28 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 27 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 27 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 27 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 26 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 26 $4 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $4 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 958 history records