Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa28b…d8b6 crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (152 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$45 (-11%) realized −$44 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate46%21W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day152.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (152 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -13.2% -21.5% 46% 28% -19.3%
≤30d 46 -13.2% -21.5% 46% 28% -19.3%
≤90d 46 -13.2% -21.5% 46% 28% -19.3%
all 46 -13.2% -21.5% 46% 28% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover152.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.5% 28% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.0% 13% -27.0%
15% -35.9% 4% -34.1%
20% -42.1% 2% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses21 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day152.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$16 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$22 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$17 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$27 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $14 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.66 · official $9.66 (match) · 159 history records