Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa28b…2ba8 politics 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 396d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%6W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$5
politics 25% −$6
sports 19% −$4
culture 7% −$1
economics 6% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 81 -9.0% -17.6% 7% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -9.9%
10% -25.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -32.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -39.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

396d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses6 / 75
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage396d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? Mar 07 $43 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $44 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? Jan 26 $43 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 24 $44 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 10? Jan 11 $43 $0 +0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 09 $96 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 05 $44 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 03 $99 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 01 $90 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $45 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 27 $46 −$1 -2%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 24 $51 $0 -1%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 24 $43 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 23 $2 $0 -9%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 18 $52 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 13 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 11 $1 $0 -21%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 09 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 05 $1 $0 -29%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 04 $1 −$1 -59%
Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2? Dec 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 03 $1 $0 -33%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 02 $1 $0 -11%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 01 $2 −$1 -22%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 29 $1 $0 -28%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 28 $1 $0 -17%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 27 $3 $0 -11%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $1 $0 -17%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 22 $52 $0 -1%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 15 $55 −$1 -1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 15 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 13 $1 $0 -25%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 12 $221 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 09 $52 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 04 $53 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $53 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $43 8d
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? BUY Yes 100¢ $43 109d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $44 114d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $44 124d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 0¢ $1 143d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $44 144d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 145d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 146d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $44 147d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $44 149d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $44 150d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $44 151d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $45 152d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $45 153d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 154d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $45 155d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 156d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $45 157d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $43 157d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $43 159d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $43 161d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $44 162d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $44 164d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $44 166d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $44 167d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $45 168d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $45 169d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $44 170d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $44 171d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.67 · official $43.67 (match) · 343 history records