trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $10 | +$28 | +276% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic | Feb 02 | $54 | +$46 | +85% |
| UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) | Feb 01 | $18 | −$18 | -100% |
| Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Feb 01 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Feb 01 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 30 | $69 | +$17 | +25% |
| Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Dec 20 | $17 | +$3 | +15% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +275.9% | +240.1% | 100% | 100% | +240.1% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +87.9% | +70.0% | 50% | 50% | +71.9% |
| ≤90d | 2 | +87.9% | +70.0% | 50% | 50% | +71.9% |
| all | 8 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 50% | 50% | +15.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.5% | 50% | +15.8% |
| 10% | -18.1% | 38% | +4.7% |
| 15% | -26.0% | 25% | -5.4% |
| 20% | -33.3% | 25% | -14.7% |