Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:01:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa289…d95c world 335 markets active 5h ago coverage 554d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Covers last 553d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12,504 (+1%) realized +$10,492 · open +$2,012
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate73%227W / 83L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,241per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$46,305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$86
14 days+$3,946
30 days+$4,749
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$8,985
world 31% +$9,331
politics 26% +$7,538
crypto 5% +$1,287
economics 2% +$844
finance 1% −$370
culture 1% +$126
sports 1% +$197
tech 0% −$599
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.1% -4.9% 100% 0% -4.9%
≤30d 22 -9.8% -18.4% 77% 27% -5.4%
≤90d 88 -5.9% -14.8% 72% 22% -6.9%
all 310 -1.0% -10.4% 73% 17% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 17% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 7% -17.6%
15% -26.8% 4% -25.6%
20% -34.0% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$3,840) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$170 vs −$385 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

554d coverage
Net worth$46,305
Realized+$10,492
Unrealized+$2,012
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses227 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions25
Markets (closed)310 / 335
History coverage554d ⚠
Avg bet$3,241
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 310 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $13,026 $13,838 +$812 (+6%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 97¢ 100¢ $5,584 $5,730 +$145 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $3,455 $3,440 −$15 (-0%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 92¢ 100¢ $3,128 $3,388 +$260 (+8%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 82¢ 86¢ $2,839 $2,995 +$156 (+5%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $2,024 $2,179 +$155 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $2,500 $1,930 −$570 (-23%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $1,760 $1,847 +$87 (+5%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 84¢ 94¢ $1,428 $1,590 +$162 (+11%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 62¢ 84¢ $1,112 $1,522 +$410 (+37%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $1,380 $1,498 +$118 (+9%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $1,422 $1,490 +$68 (+5%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 89¢ 92¢ $1,335 $1,388 +$52 (+4%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 86¢ 86¢ $1,030 $1,038 +$8 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 64¢ 58¢ $640 $585 −$55 (-9%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 64¢ 100¢ $256 $399 +$143 (+56%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 32¢ 36¢ $240 $270 +$30 (+12%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 38¢ 84¢ $114 $251 +$137 (+120%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $230 $245 +$15 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 98¢ $188 $224 +$36 (+19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $225 $212 −$12 (-6%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 88¢ 94¢ $158 $170 +$11 (+7%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $176 $40 −$136 (-78%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 10¢ 10¢ $38 $36 −$2 (-5%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $1,664 +$86 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $23,501 +$509 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10,437 +$2,042 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5,393 +$357 +7%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $190 −$186 -98%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $905 −$56 -6%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2,181 −$1,456 -67%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $6,860 +$921 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $6,163 +$652 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $6,282 +$415 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 14 $2,030 +$219 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $2,572 +$554 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $9,087 +$163 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $10,618 +$52 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $3,500 +$133 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $6,422 +$323 +5%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 Jun 01 $5,064 +$186 +4%
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? May 29 $1,005 +$2 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $2,182 −$927 -42%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $300 −$12 -4%
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 24 $780 −$240 -31%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 May 24 $970 −$39 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 24 $968 −$68 -7%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $383 +$136 +36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 20 $6,558 +$233 +4%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 19 $1,848 +$82 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 16 $44,497 +$2,063 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 16 $1,241 −$119 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $3,045 +$455 +15%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 14 $503 −$497 -99%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? May 14 $1,591 −$576 -36%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 14 $1,677 +$284 +17%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 14 $1,741 +$9 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 10 $11,852 +$104 +1%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 09 $992 −$22 -2%
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480? May 08 $815 −$607 -74%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 04 $7,512 +$1,223 +16%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 02 $497 +$3 +1%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? May 02 $484 +$16 +3%
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 May 02 $689 +$15 +2%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 02 $1,440 +$60 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 02 $2,460 +$38 +2%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 May 02 $3,842 +$50 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 02 $13,075 +$406 +3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? Apr 25 $134 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $225 5h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 34¢ $255 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $2,150 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 64¢ $2 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 64¢ $33 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 64¢ $46 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 64¢ $35 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 64¢ $33 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 64¢ $32 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 64¢ $35 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 64¢ $42 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 64¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 64¢ $178 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,305 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 64¢ $200 3d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $230 3d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $79 5d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $6 5d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $1,871 5d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $164 5d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 5d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 5d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $5 5d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $97 5d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $300 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $9 6d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $12 6d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $91 6d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $114 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46,305.17 · official $46,305.17 (match) · 3500 history records