Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:04:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A2 0xa289…b4ea other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$288 (-49%) realized −$202 · open −$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 84% −$313
other 10% −$54
sports 6% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -63.4% -66.9% 0% 0% -66.9%
≤30d 2 -31.7% -38.2% 0% 0% -66.8%
≤90d 2 -31.7% -38.2% 0% 0% -66.8%
all 2 -31.7% -38.2% 0% 0% -66.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.2% 0% -66.8%
10% -44.1% 0% -70.0%
15% -49.5% 0% -72.9%
20% -54.5% 0% -75.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$313 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$202
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage12d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $494 −$313 -63%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $33 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $55 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 5¢ $82 21h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 6¢ $98 21h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 9d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $494 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.35 · official $0.35 (match) · 6 history records