Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:20:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A2 0xa289…b412 crypto 298 markets active 1h ago coverage 576d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$846 (+1%) realized +$853 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate72%211W / 84L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$420per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,015now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$44
14 days+$157
30 days+$795
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$823
other 3% −$48
economics 1% +$14
politics 1% −$2
world 0% +$11
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.3% -9.3% 64% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 50 +4.8% -5.2% 86% 10% -6.0%
≤90d 109 +3.5% -6.3% 88% 8% -7.7%
all 295 +1.7% -8.0% 72% 13% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 13% -8.9%
10% -16.8% 7% -17.6%
15% -24.9% 4% -25.6%
20% -32.2% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$515) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$35 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

576d coverage
Net worth$1,015
Realized+$853
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses211 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)295 / 298
History coverage576d
Avg bet$420
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 295 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 91¢ 91¢ $422 $419 −$4 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 95¢ 96¢ $300 $301 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 95¢ 93¢ $299 $296 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 19 $928 +$31 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 17 $564 +$9 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 16? Jun 17 $500 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Jun 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 16 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 16 $201 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $85 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $148 +$2 +1%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 12 $28 +$6 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 11 $385 +$16 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 11 $272 +$20 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 11 $726 +$30 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $252 +$5 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $450 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $300 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $1,001 +$13 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $92 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $500 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $750 +$6 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 5? Jun 06 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $120 +$45 +37%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $1,205 +$11 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $300 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $1,035 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $730 +$473 +65%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 03 $288 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 02 $126 +$74 +59%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June? Jun 02 $82 +$18 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $597 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $149 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 28? May 29 $744 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 28 $1,319 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 28 $1,281 −$10 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 27 $1,042 −$6 -1%
Will Solana dip to $80 on May 26? May 27 $445 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 26? May 27 $113 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $443 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 25 $402 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 24? May 25 $515 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 18-24? May 25 $511 +$8 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $94 39m
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $301 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $296 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $98 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $207 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $92 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $92 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 97¢ $386 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 91¢ $239 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $752 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 57¢ $276 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 50¢ $130 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 65¢ $130 2d
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $500 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 69¢ $26 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? SELL No 94¢ $100 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 75¢ $100 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 75¢ $169 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $0 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $20 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $18 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $5 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $117 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 89¢ $189 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $44 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $202 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 78¢ $77 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,015.14 · official $1,014.68 (match) · 1771 history records