Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A2 0xa287…70fd sports 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$48 (-5%) realized −$26 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%19W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days+$76
14 days+$76
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$45
other 12% +$2
crypto 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -14.0% -22.2% 42% 42% -0.2%
≤30d 45 -14.0% -22.2% 42% 42% -0.2%
≤90d 45 -14.0% -22.2% 42% 42% -0.2%
all 45 -14.0% -22.2% 42% 42% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 42% -0.2%
10% -29.6% 40% -9.7%
15% -36.4% 40% -18.4%
20% -42.7% 36% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$12 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses19 / 26
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 56
History coverage8d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 36¢ $50 $29 −$21 (-43%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 42¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $117 +$104 +89%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $91 −$70 -77%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$35 +228%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -70%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $61 −$41 -67%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $18 −$8 -44%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $30 +$12 +40%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $20 +$23 +114%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $8 +$11 +139%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $18 +$20 +107%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $51 +$46 +91%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$18 +91%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $35 +$4 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $11 +$7 +58%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$6 +55%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $11 +$25 +222%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$25 +121%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $6 +$6 +105%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $23 −$4 -17%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $67 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 43¢ $81 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 75¢ $50 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 75¢ $104 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $18 14h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Portuga BUY 19¢ $12 15h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $117 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $38 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $20 16h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $30 17h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $20 17h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL 99¢ $50 18h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 3¢ $2 18h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 18¢ $10 18h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 18h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 25¢ $10 18h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 18h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 35h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: F BUY 17¢ $10 35h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 36h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY 29¢ $15 37h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will F BUY 24¢ $10 41h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 41h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 42h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 43h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 43h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $17 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $42 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.20 · official $137.99 · 107 history records