Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:53:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A2 0xa287…4272 crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$83 (+4%) realized +$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate69%36W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$129
14 days+$69
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +17.6% +6.4% 67% 56% +6.1%
≤30d 52 +7.7% -2.5% 69% 54% -6.3%
≤90d 52 +7.7% -2.5% 69% 54% -6.3%
all 52 +7.7% -2.5% 69% 54% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 54% -6.3%
10% -11.8% 46% -15.2%
15% -20.4% 33% -23.4%
20% -28.2% 25% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$40 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses36 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage12d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$30 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$70 +166%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$49 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$53 +128%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $42 +$58 +139%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$39 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$20 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$36 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$11 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$4 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$10 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $41 +$19 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$11 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $40 +$6 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$40 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $42 +$53 +127%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $40 +$3 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$19 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$16 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$23 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $40 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $41 +$12 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $40 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $40 +$7 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $41 +$13 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$3 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$6 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$6 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$11 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$28 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$51 +245%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $42 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $42 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $42 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $42 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $42 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $42 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $42 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $42 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $42 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $41 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $41 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $41 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $41 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $40 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $41 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $42 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $42 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $41 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $41 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $42 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $41 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $41 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $41 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $40 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $41 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $42 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records