Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:44:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa286…b3ba other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$875 (-21%) realized −$875 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%7W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$249
7 days−$242
14 days−$957
30 days−$957
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$737
sports 25% −$70
crypto 2% −$100
world 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +0.1% -9.4% 28% 28% -17.7%
≤30d 23 +2.2% -7.5% 30% 26% -31.2%
≤90d 23 +2.2% -7.5% 30% 26% -31.2%
all 23 +2.2% -7.5% 30% 26% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 26% -31.2%
10% -16.4% 26% -37.8%
15% -24.4% 22% -43.8%
20% -31.8% 17% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$118 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$875
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage8d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $154 +$98 +63%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$89 +44%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$26 -50%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $153 −$52 -34%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $203 −$203 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $101 −$4 -4%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $51 +$306 +596%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $203 +$175 +86%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $131 +$40 +30%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $205 −$21 -10%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $480 −$85 -18%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $256 −$243 -95%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 −$14 -7%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 +$211 +344%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $297 +$17 +6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $765 −$743 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $274 −$170 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 41m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $291 44m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 48m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 50m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 20¢ $106 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $25 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 28¢ $100 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $153 3h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 25h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $203 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 61¢ $97 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 26h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $203 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 91¢ $171 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 69¢ $131 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 20¢ $81 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 22¢ $102 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 11¢ $156 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 16¢ $239 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records