Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:24:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa284…119b crypto 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-3%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate85%29W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$47
sports 29% +$6
other 14% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +2.3% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤90d 1 +2.3% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.5%
all 34 -2.3% -11.6% 85% 18% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 18% -13.8%
10% -20.1% 0% -22.1%
15% -27.8% 0% -29.6%
20% -34.9% 0% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$17 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses29 / 5
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage113d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $138 $138 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $287 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 08 $44 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 08 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 08 $55 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 08 $49 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 08 $46 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 08 $42 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 07 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 07 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 07 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 07 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 07 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 07 $12 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 07 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 07 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 07 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 07 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 07 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 06 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 06 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 06 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 06 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 06 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 06 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 06 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 06 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 06 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 06 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 06 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 06 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 06 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $141 1h
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 27d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 52¢ $206 27d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $53 29d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $184 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $45 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $44 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $40 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $55 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $49 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $49 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $46 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $46 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $42 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $19 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $18 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $16 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $13 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $12 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $20 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.88 · official $137.88 (match) · 79 history records