Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:19:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A2 0xa283…6a4a politics 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$15
world 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
other 0% −$6
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -2.0% -11.3% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -2.0% -11.3% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 21 -2.0% -11.3% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 24 -3.3% -12.5% 0% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -9.8%
10% -20.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage254d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $677 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $836 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $586 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $180 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $912 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $2 $0 -18%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $219 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $169 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $2 $0 -19%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $179 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $189 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $369 −$1 -0%
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 08 $15 −$6 -38%
5kt meteor strike in 2025? Nov 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Google be the most valuable company on October 31? Oct 16 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $168 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 3h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 6h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 7h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 8h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 10h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 14h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 15h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 15h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 16h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 17h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 17h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $158 21h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 21h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 22h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 22h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 25h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 25h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 26h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 26h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 27h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 30h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 31h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 32h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 34h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.28 · official $15.28 (match) · 113 history records