Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:37:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa281…571e crypto 857 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$187 (-2%) realized −$174 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate68%574W / 271L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day67.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$108
14 days−$233
30 days−$360
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$278
other 3% −$47
world 2% −$13
finance 2% −$19
tech 1% +$7
sports 1% −$25
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 -6.9% -15.8% 64% 27% -13.7%
≤30d 845 -5.0% -14.0% 68% 35% -13.9%
≤90d 845 -5.0% -14.0% 68% 35% -13.9%
all 845 -5.0% -14.0% 68% 35% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 35% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 15% -22.1%
15% -29.8% 7% -29.6%
20% -36.6% 4% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$174
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses574 / 271
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)845 / 857
History coverage30d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day67.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 845 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 60¢ 50¢ $26 $22 −$4 (-15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 72¢ 100¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+39%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 30¢ 31¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 85¢ 70¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 62¢ 56¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 30¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 26¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-49%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 85¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Yes 25¢ 8¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-70%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$6 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$7 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $8 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$4 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$7 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$3 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $9 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $7 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $7 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $7 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $7 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $7 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $8 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $7 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $6 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $7 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $8 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $7 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $8 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $7 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $8 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $9 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $7 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $7 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $7 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $7 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $7 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.55 · official $120.55 (match) · 2519 history records