Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:17:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa281…bab9 other 8 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$49 (-61%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$30
crypto 13% −$10
world 11% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-66.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -62.7% -66.2% 25% 12% -65.5%
≤30d 8 -62.7% -66.2% 25% 12% -65.5%
≤90d 8 -62.7% -66.2% 25% 12% -65.5%
all 8 -62.7% -66.2% 25% 12% -65.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.2% 12% -65.5%
10% -69.4% 12% -68.8%
15% -72.4% 12% -71.8%
20% -75.1% 12% -74.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records