Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:14:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A2
0xa281…a89c
other · 47 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$44 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$45 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses9 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage599d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 1 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $17 $0 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $54 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $47 $0 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 06 $109 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $58 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $55 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $58 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $57 $0 -0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 13 $9 −$1 -7%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$12 +165%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $5 +$5 +105%
Will BNB reach $800 in March? Apr 06 $10 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 06 $19 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 05 $36 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $14 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $208 −$3 -1%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $1,406 −$6 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $1,041 −$3 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $1,158 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 81% −$16
other 10% +$10
sports 2% −$40
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 5d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $8 5d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 10d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 25d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 26d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 26d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -50.1% -54.9% 0% 0% -38.8%
≤30d 12 -8.4% -17.1% 8% 0% -13.4%
≤90d 35 -9.6% -18.3% 17% 6% -12.2%
all 46 -7.4% -16.3% 20% 4% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 4% -10.4%
10% -24.3% 4% -18.9%
15% -31.6% 4% -26.8%
20% -38.3% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.49 · official $26.49 (match) · 250 history records