Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:04:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa280…3343 crypto 223 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2450 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$16,857 (+79%) realized +$16,857 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +397% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +283% what you keep after slip
Net edge+283%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate64%457W / 252L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day2449.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$265
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2450 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+349.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 709 +397.1% +349.8% 64% 53% +14.1%
≤30d 709 +397.1% +349.8% 64% 53% +14.1%
≤90d 709 +397.1% +349.8% 64% 53% +14.1%
all 709 +397.1% +349.8% 64% 53% +14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2449.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +349.8% 53% +14.1%
10% ← realistic here +306.7% 49% +3.2%
15% +267.4% 47% -6.8%
20% +231.4% 45% -15.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +397% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +810% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$15 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.02 per $1 lost it wins $3.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$16,857
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses457 / 252
Open positions1
Markets (closed)709 / 223
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$96
Trades / day2449.6
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 709 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Down 26¢ 52¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Up 52¢ 48¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$43 -5538%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$23 +10017%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$73 +11050%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$43 +434%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $9 +$83 +891%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 29 $2 +$41 +1957%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $6 +$10 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $19 −$43 -229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$58 +1894%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 29 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $11 +$16 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$27 +495%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 29 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$27 +390%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$8 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 29 $8 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $1 +$21 +2808%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $11 +$79 +694%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$15 +589%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$20 +572%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $8 +$17 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$27 +785%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 29 $4 +$55 +1554%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$42 +1215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $14 −$60 -434%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $4 +$8 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$18 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$61 +1314%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 29 $1 +$148 +12777%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 29 $6 +$40 +646%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 29 $6 +$11 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $12 −$33 -274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $4 +$20 +443%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 29 $9 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $8 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $18 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$17 +310%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $8 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$32 +1141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$11 +321%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$85 -287%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $9 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $17 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $9 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $12 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $18 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $16 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.26 · official $15.36 (match) · 3500 history records