Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:04:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A2 0xa27c…a1e2 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$113 (-12%) realized −$91 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$171
crypto 32% +$19
sports 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-55.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -51.2% -55.8% 43% 14% -25.8%
≤30d 7 -51.2% -55.8% 43% 14% -25.8%
≤90d 7 -51.2% -55.8% 43% 14% -25.8%
all 7 -51.2% -55.8% 43% 14% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.8% 14% -25.8%
10% -60.1% 14% -32.9%
15% -63.9% 0% -39.4%
20% -67.5% 0% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$48 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized−$91
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage6d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $129 $108 −$21 (-17%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $152 +$40 +26%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $195 +$2 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $164 −$157 -95%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $182 +$17 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 9¢ $138 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $49 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? SELL Yes 66¢ $193 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 49¢ $152 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 54¢ $197 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $164 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $195 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $182 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.98 · official $154.98 (match) · 13 history records