Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:06:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa27b…71f6 crypto 1167 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,209 (-12%) realized −$1,209 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate57%666W / 501L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day28.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$9
14 days+$3
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$352
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -2.6% -11.8% 72% 32% -9.9%
≤30d 300 -1.6% -11.0% 68% 35% -9.8%
≤90d 1167 -4.9% -14.0% 57% 45% -12.8%
all 1167 -4.9% -14.0% 57% 45% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 45% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 39% -21.1%
15% -29.7% 36% -28.8%
20% -36.6% 34% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,209
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses666 / 501
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1167 / 1167
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1167 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $45 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $91 −$6 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $81 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $75 −$42 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $70 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $71 −$17 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $55 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $54 −$43 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $70 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $76 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$7 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $71 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $40 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $50 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $40 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $40 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $43 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $51 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $40 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $47 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $41 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $33 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records