Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:48:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa278…3369 sports 402 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (576 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,293 (-12%) realized −$26,412 · open +$23,119
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate61%116W / 75L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day575.9pace
Fees−$238est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$26,202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$2,764
other 24% +$23,327
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (576 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 -0.1% -9.6% 61% 55% -26.1%
≤30d 191 -0.1% -9.6% 61% 55% -26.1%
≤90d 191 -0.1% -9.6% 61% 55% -26.1%
all 191 -0.1% -9.6% 61% 55% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover575.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 55% -26.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 49% -33.2%
15% -26.2% 40% -39.6%
20% -33.4% 29% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$85 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$26,202
Realized−$26,412
Unrealized+$23,119
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses116 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$238
Open positions178
Markets (closed)191 / 402
History coverage2d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day575.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 178 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more? Yes 0¢ 99¢ $0 $5,343 +$5,343 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 0¢ 99¢ $0 $4,890 +$4,890 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? No 0¢ 100¢ $0 $1,733 +$1,733 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 0¢ 78¢ $0 $1,727 +$1,727 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? No 0¢ 98¢ $0 $1,236 +$1,236 (+0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? No 0¢ 99¢ $0 $1,200 +$1,200 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 0¢ 97¢ $0 $1,169 +$1,169 (+0%)
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? No 0¢ 100¢ $0 $900 +$900 (+0%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 100¢ $489 $882 +$394 (+81%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 0¢ 98¢ $0 $587 +$587 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 26¢ $0 $583 +$583 (+0%)
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Yes 31¢ 32¢ $347 $354 +$7 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 0¢ 100¢ $0 $352 +$352 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 77¢ $0 $308 +$308 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? No 0¢ 100¢ $0 $268 +$268 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? No 0¢ 100¢ $0 $236 +$236 (+0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 0¢ 8¢ $0 $233 +$233 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? No 0¢ 62¢ $0 $208 +$208 (+0%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by less than 3%? No 0¢ 100¢ $0 $200 +$200 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 0¢ 92¢ $0 $184 +$184 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 0¢ 100¢ $0 $181 +$181 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 0¢ 88¢ $0 $165 +$165 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 0¢ 100¢ $0 $161 +$161 (+0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in June? No 0¢ 100¢ $0 $160 +$160 (+0%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Over 15¢ 12¢ $191 $158 −$33 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $78 −$78 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Alireza Jahanbakhsh: 4+ g Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Team to Take First Corner AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1s Jun 27 $28 +$14 +48%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $5 +$2 +46%
Thomas Meunier: 4+ goals + assists AND New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1. Jun 27 $86 +$10 +12%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $103 −$103 -100%
Rodri: 1+ goals Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Ryan Mendes: 1+ goals Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Gilson Benchimol: 1+ goals Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Borja Iglesias: 1+ goals Jun 27 $36 −$36 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $49 −$49 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $84 −$84 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0. Jun 27 $431 −$431 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $1,260 −$1,260 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $824 −$824 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? AND Spain to win the second half? Jun 27 $0 $0 +90%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Uruguay vs. Spai Jun 27 $4 +$2 +53%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Team to Take First Corner AND Lamine Yamal: 1+ goal Jun 27 $15 +$10 +62%
Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots AND Federico Valverde: 2+ shots Jun 27 $5 +$10 +199%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots AND Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots AND Uruguay vs. S Jun 27 $4 +$5 +105%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals AND Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 5.5 Corners AN Jun 27 $24 +$14 +58%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $43 +$26 +62%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $25 +$16 +63%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals AND Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $20 +$11 +52%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals AND Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score AND Jun 27 $8 +$5 +57%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals AND Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $29 +$5 +17%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $43 +$10 +23%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots AND Dani Olmo: 1+ shots AND Federico Valverde: Jun 27 $7 +$5 +66%
Rodri: 1+ goals AND Nico Williams: 1+ goals Jun 27 $91 +$9 +10%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals AND Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $7 +$5 +66%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 AND Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $6 +$4 +63%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 AND Uruguay Jun 27 $21 +$10 +46%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Uruguay vs. Spain: Jun 27 $74 +$26 +34%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 11.5 Total Jun 27 $67 +$33 +49%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corne Jun 27 $78 +$10 +12%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Will Spain win on 2026-06 Jun 27 $53 +$47 +89%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals AN Jun 27 $34 +$20 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 1m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Portugal leading at halftime? AND Will BUY 59¢ $6 1m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $3 2m
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Colombia vs. Portugal: 2nd BUY 65¢ $6 2m
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $34 4m
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Sc BUY 66¢ $66 4m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Panama 10¢ $10 5m
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY 86¢ $86 5m
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $2 6m
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg BUY 66¢ $4 6m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1 BUY 86¢ $86 7m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 13¢ $13 7m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Portugal leading at halftime? AND Will BUY 59¢ $4 8m
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 8m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 8m
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $33 10m
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg BUY 67¢ $67 10m
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $7 13m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Panama 13¢ $2 13m
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY 51¢ $9 13m
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY No 78¢ $78 16m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 18¢ $18 16m
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06 BUY 4¢ $4 16m
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $5 17m
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY 85¢ $27 17m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Portugal leading at halftime? AND Will BUY 59¢ $6 18m
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 18m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 13¢ $2 22m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1 BUY 86¢ $12 22m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,202.19 · official $32,874.25 · 1283 history records