Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa278…a443 other 227 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$42 · open +$26
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate65%130W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days+$4
14 days+$15
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$63
sports 20% −$62
world 8% +$3
politics 6% −$5
culture 3% $0
finance 2% +$2
tech 1% +$1
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -15.2% -23.3% 59% 32% -8.2%
≤30d 199 -6.0% -15.0% 65% 33% -13.0%
≤90d 199 -6.0% -15.0% 65% 33% -13.0%
all 199 -6.0% -15.0% 65% 33% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 33% -13.0%
10% -23.1% 20% -21.3%
15% -30.6% 16% -28.9%
20% -37.4% 10% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses130 / 69
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions24
Markets (closed)199 / 227
History coverage103d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 17¢ 58¢ $11 $37 +$26 (+244%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $5 +$1 (+29%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 65¢ 68¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 88¢ 81¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 87¢ 68¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 92¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 88¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 83¢ 60¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 87¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 76¢ 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 36¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$8 -63%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $7 −$6 -92%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1 +$2 +180%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -24%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +57%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +56%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $16 +$44 +267%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 12 $2 +$1 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $30 −$21 -71%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 12 $1 −$1 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 29m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 34m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $4 35m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $1 53m
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 36¢ $1 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $1 4h
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 SELL No 100¢ $2 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No $1 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $1 15h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $1 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 16h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 84¢ $1 22h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $2 22h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $1 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 22h
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $5 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $2 24h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 27h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 76¢ $2 27h
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 27h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $2 28h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2 33h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $1 35h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 35¢ $1 35h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 36h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $2 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $3 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.25 · official $87.25 (match) · 640 history records