Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:11:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A2
0xa278…fb03
crypto · 24 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$280 -84%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$280 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$280
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage60d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$280
7 days−$280
14 days−$280
30 days−$280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $96 −$91 -95%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $192 −$182 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 91% −$274
crypto 9% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 6h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 87¢ $14 10h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 2¢ $5 10h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $10 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -3.6% -12.8% 61% 35% -89.2%
≤30d 23 -3.6% -12.8% 61% 35% -89.2%
≤90d 23 -3.6% -12.8% 61% 35% -89.2%
all 23 -3.6% -12.8% 61% 35% -89.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 35% -89.2%
10% -21.1% 17% -90.3%
15% -28.8% 17% -91.2%
20% -35.7% 17% -92.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.13 · official $14.13 (match) · 63 history records