Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A2 0xa275…a963 crypto 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%157W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$410now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$8
14 days+$25
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$55
world 0% −$31
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 42 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 152 -0.4% -9.8% 99% 0% -9.5%
all 159 -0.3% -9.8% 99% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$27 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$410
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses157 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 160
History coverage130d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $410 $410 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $80 on June 16? Jun 17 $384 +$2 +0%
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 16? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $408 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $408 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 14? Jun 15 $407 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $404 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $405 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 11? Jun 12 $111 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 11? Jun 12 $76 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 11? Jun 12 $218 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $404 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $403 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $401 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $401 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 7? Jun 08 $394 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 7? Jun 07 $394 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 6? Jun 07 $393 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 5? Jun 06 $391 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $391 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 4? Jun 05 $388 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $387 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 3? Jun 04 $386 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $386 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $386 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? Jun 01 $385 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 31? Jun 01 $384 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 30? May 30 $384 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $383 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 28 $381 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? May 27 $381 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 26? May 26 $380 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 25? May 25 $379 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on May 24? May 25 $191 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 on May 24? May 25 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 24? May 24 $377 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on May 23? May 24 $378 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? May 22 $376 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? May 20 $377 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? May 19 $375 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 18? May 19 $377 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 18? May 18 $377 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on May 17? May 18 $375 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 17? May 17 $374 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 16? May 16 $374 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 15? May 15 $376 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,150 on May 11? May 12 $375 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 11? May 11 $375 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,150 on May 10? May 11 $373 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 8? May 08 $373 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $410 1h
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 16h
Will Solana reach $80 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $384 16h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $408 29h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $408 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $407 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $404 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $405 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $111 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $76 5d
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $218 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $404 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $400 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $403 8d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $401 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $401 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $394 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $394 9d
Will Solana reach $75 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $393 10d
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $391 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $391 12d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $388 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $387 13d
Will Solana reach $85 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $386 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $386 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $386 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $385 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $384 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $384 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $383 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $409.59 · official $409.59 (match) · 341 history records