Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:49:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A2
0xa272…d96f
politics · 28 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$27 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$27 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage79d
Avg bet$575
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 0 History 28 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $991 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $989 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $1,112 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Jun 13 $970 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 16 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 16 $961 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $1,980 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $1,025 −$1 -0%
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 15 $955 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 14 $75 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 14 $1,014 −$9 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $991 $0 +0%
Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 04 $166 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will Braga win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 04 $68 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $131 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 01 $46 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 01 $35 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $120 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 27 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 34% −$6
other 27% −$12
culture 13% −$3
world 12% −$2
economics 7% −$1
tech 6% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $57 37m
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $989 47m
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 56m
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $931 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 1h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $808 1h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $204 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,013 2h
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 21h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,045 21h
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 21h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,022 21h
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 21h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,110 21h
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 22h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 22h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,078 22h
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca SELL No 100¢ $733 22h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 22h
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca SELL No 100¢ $236 22h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 22h
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $970 23h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 27d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $24 27d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $15 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records