Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A2 0xa272…3f31 other 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,220 (+1%) realized +$1,220 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 119L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$1,610per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$884now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$29
14 days−$84
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$84
politics 39% −$114
sports 5% +$1,326
culture 4% −$12
world 1% −$4
crypto 1% +$30
economics 1% −$2
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 62 +6.7% -3.5% 15% 13% -9.4%
≤90d 132 +2.8% -7.0% 11% 9% -9.0%
all 133 +2.8% -7.0% 11% 9% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 9% -9.0%
10% -15.9% 9% -17.7%
15% -24.0% 9% -25.7%
20% -31.5% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,904) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$5 · ×26.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.09 per $1 lost it wins $3.09
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$884
Realized+$1,220
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage91d
Avg bet$1,610
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $885 $884 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $856 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $1,855 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,137 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $4,070 −$5 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 12 $3,876 −$6 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $4,017 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $4,265 −$7 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $699 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 09 $162 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 09 $1,043 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,062 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2,510 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,801 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,271 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $1,234 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,293 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $76 +$52 +67%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,051 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 04 $69 +$57 +83%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $905 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,097 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,674 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $125 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,224 −$3 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $2,512 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $2,947 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $1,200 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $3,606 −$4 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $2,762 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $2,037 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $3,429 −$4 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,186 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $6,476 −$9 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $1,195 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,068 −$2 -0%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $55 +$68 +124%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,075 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $2,696 −$3 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $86 +$43 +50%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $4,086 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,009 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $885 1h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $854 42h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $856 42h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,035 42h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,037 45h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $827 45h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $827 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,136 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,137 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $949 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $950 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,189 4d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,191 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $942 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $943 6d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,023 6d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,025 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $697 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $699 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $946 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $947 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $162 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $162 7d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $1,041 7d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $1,043 8d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $573 8d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $574 8d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,061 8d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,062 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,055 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $884.22 · official $884.22 (match) · 446 history records