Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:58:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa271…9f2b world 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$2 (+20%) realized −$6 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -86% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -88% what you keep after slip
Net edge-88%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$6
crypto 30% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-87.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -86.4% -87.7% 0% 0% -88.4%
≤30d 2 -86.4% -87.7% 0% 0% -88.4%
≤90d 2 -86.4% -87.7% 0% 0% -88.4%
all 2 -86.4% -87.7% 0% 0% -88.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -87.7% 0% -88.4%
10% -88.9% 0% -89.6%
15% -90.0% 0% -90.6%
20% -91.0% 0% -91.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -87% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -86% · $-wt -87% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 80¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -85%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 31m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.93 · official $4.93 (match) · 5 history records