Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:07:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa270…ecad crypto 452 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,937 (+16%) realized +$1,796 · open +$141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%135W / 264L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$625
7 days+$760
14 days+$760
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 45% +$1,004
other 16% −$422
crypto 13% +$49
world 13% +$1,052
sports 5% +$471
culture 3% −$298
politics 2% +$66
weather 2% +$121
tech 1% +$71
economics 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +66.0% +50.2% 26% 26% +33.0%
≤30d 107 +59.3% +44.1% 22% 22% -23.9%
≤90d 187 +29.6% +17.3% 27% 27% -23.7%
all 399 +10.4% -0.1% 34% 33% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.1% 33% +0.1%
10% ← realistic here -9.7% 28% -9.5%
15% -18.4% 25% -18.2%
20% -26.4% 20% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$20 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$527
Realized+$1,796
Unrealized+$141
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses135 / 264
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions44
Markets (closed)399 / 452
History coverage112d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 399 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? Yes 5¢ 78¢ $5 $78 +$74 (+1470%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 36¢ 78¢ $36 $78 +$42 (+118%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Paraguay 18¢ 38¢ $31 $64 +$32 (+103%)
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 18¢ $18 $54 +$36 (+200%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 9¢ 8¢ $37 $30 −$7 (-19%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+14%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+9%)
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $28 $14 −$14 (-49%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-6%)
SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter? No 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $18 $8 −$10 (-54%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+137%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 8¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+655%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 29 $5 −$4 -70%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 29? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 29? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 29? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or higher on June 29? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 29? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 29? Jun 29 $6 −$5 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 29? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $12 +$18 +150%
Paraguay to score first vs. Germany? Jun 29 $23 +$67 +293%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $12 +$18 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 29? Jun 29 $7 −$5 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 29? Jun 29 $64 +$166 +260%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $160 +$260 +162%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $34 +$16 +49%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $22 +$18 +79%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $39 +$11 +27%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $73 +$27 +38%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $162 +$55 +34%
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 29? Jun 29 $14 −$4 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 29? Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 29? Jun 29 $1 $0 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29? Jun 29 $5 +$5 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 29? Jun 29 $0 $0 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 29? Jun 29 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 28? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AS FAR vs. UnionTouargaSports end in a draw? Jun 28 $0 +$6 +9900%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $12 +$38 +335%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AS FAR win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 21m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 34m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 43m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 45m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 22¢ $9 46m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 22¢ $7 46m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 48m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 48m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 29? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C or higher on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 83¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Paraguay to score first vs. Germany? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $527.06 · official $527.97 (match) · 3086 history records