Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:42:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa26d…b60d other 125 markets active 0h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$29 (+1%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%47W / 75L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$16
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$24
other 33% +$6
sports 11% −$1
politics 11% $0
crypto 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.3% -9.3% 33% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 30 +10.0% -0.4% 37% 10% -7.8%
≤90d 66 +2.8% -7.0% 38% 5% -8.6%
all 122 +0.5% -9.0% 39% 3% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -8.7%
10% -17.7% 3% -17.5%
15% -25.7% 2% -25.4%
20% -33.0% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.12 per $1 lost it wins $3.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses47 / 75
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)122 / 125
History coverage471d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 85¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 21¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 24 $43 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $75 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $60 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $54 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $183 +$3 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $54 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $45 +$15 +33%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $46 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $159 −$4 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $49 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $6 $0 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $160 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $21 +$12 +57%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $29 +$3 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $4 $0 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $41 −$4 -9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $29 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $29 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $19 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $61 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $92 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $1 $0 -11%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $4 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $4 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $88 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $136 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $56 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $56 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $94 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $43 29m
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $43 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $45 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $10 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $11 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $44 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $11 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $16 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $19 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $60 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $60 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $55 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $55 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $54 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $54 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $60 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $60 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $42 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $4 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $42 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $4 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.13 · official $0.00 · 504 history records