Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:45:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa266…56fd other 261 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%19W / 242L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$29
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$45
sports 26% −$20
politics 9% −$11
culture 7% −$8
crypto 5% $0
economics 5% −$5
world 3% −$2
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 261 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses19 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)261 / 261
History coverage142d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 261 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 23 $488 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $60 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $217 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 22 $60 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $323 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $377 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $290 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $147 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 20 $599 −$2 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $324 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $315 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $238 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $369 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $233 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $271 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $232 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 18 $160 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $344 −$3 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $304 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $564 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $588 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $221 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $113 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $356 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $133 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $301 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $416 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $206 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $267 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $691 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $143 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $145 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $133 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $317 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $293 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $354 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $140 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 2h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 4h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $54 7h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $5 9h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $60 11h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 11h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 13h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $60 15h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $60 16h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 25h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 27h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $60 28h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $60 30h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $60 34h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $60 35h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 41h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 43h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 44h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 45h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 47h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $61 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 3d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1445 history records