trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 1 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| all | 17 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 24% | 6% | +64.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.4% | 6% | +64.9% |
| 10% | -18.1% | 6% | +49.1% |
| 15% | -26.0% | 6% | +34.7% |
| 20% | -33.3% | 6% | +21.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Yes | 92¢ | 84¢ | $5 | $5 | −$1 (-9%) |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Yes | 67¢ | 66¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? | Jun 15 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Feb 27 | $64 | −$21 | -33% |
| Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? | Feb 20 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? | Feb 20 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Feb 20 | $6 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Feb 20 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jan 18 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jan 18 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jan 18 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? | Jan 18 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 27 | $9 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 27 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Utah vs. Red Wings | Dec 18 | $621 | +$647 | +104% |
| Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Dec 15 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Dec 13 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Dec 11 | $11 | $0 | -0% |