Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:12:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa264…3b18 crypto 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (355 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,304 (-49%) realized −$5,298 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate24%27W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day355.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$775now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$359
sports 7% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (355 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-45.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 111 -39.4% -45.2% 24% 11% -18.9%
≤90d 111 -39.4% -45.2% 24% 11% -18.9%
all 111 -39.4% -45.2% 24% 11% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover355.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.2% 11% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -50.4% 5% -26.6%
15% -55.2% 3% -33.7%
20% -59.6% 2% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -77% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
49.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$21 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$775
Realized−$5,298
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses27 / 84
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 70
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$155
Trades / day355.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Manel Kape 62¢ 62¢ $781 $775 −$6 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 11PM ET Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
HYPE Up or Down - May 15, 4AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Boston College Eagles Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $107 −$107 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $96 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $83 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $155 −$32 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $109 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $168 +$34 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $78 −$10 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $137 +$8 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 62¢ $790 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $15 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $774.81 · official $774.81 (match) · 3500 history records