Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:47:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa261…39ae crypto 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$66 (-6%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$126
7 days−$126
14 days−$126
30 days−$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$225
politics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -34.3% -40.6% 50% 50% -42.9%
≤30d 42 -8.2% -16.9% 50% 50% -28.0%
≤90d 42 -8.2% -16.9% 50% 50% -28.0%
all 42 -8.2% -16.9% 50% 50% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 50% -28.0%
10% -24.9% 43% -34.9%
15% -32.1% 38% -41.2%
20% -38.8% 29% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$29 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage22d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 07 $103 −$97 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 07 $77 +$53 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 07 $51 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 07 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 07 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$34 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$13 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 05 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 05 $26 +$49 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 05 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 05 $26 +$69 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 05 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 05 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 05 $26 +$14 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$15 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $7 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $131 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records