Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:24:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa260…3844 crypto 738 markets active 0h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,200 (-4%) realized −$1,161 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%192W / 545L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days−$472
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$1,822
sports 15% −$306
politics 2% +$74
world 0% −$57
other 0% +$20
weather 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -13.9% -22.1% 31% 31% -8.8%
≤30d 90 -20.4% -28.0% 22% 22% -15.7%
≤90d 708 -18.8% -26.6% 26% 26% -15.8%
all 737 -19.8% -27.4% 26% 26% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 26% -16.0%
10% -34.4% 25% -24.1%
15% -40.7% 25% -31.4%
20% -46.5% 25% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$34 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$1,161
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses192 / 545
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions1
Markets (closed)737 / 738
History coverage596d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 737 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 22¢ 14¢ $100 $61 −$39 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $131 +$349 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $27 −$25 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $174 −$166 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $105 +$174 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $105 +$203 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $93 −$89 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 24 $202 −$192 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 24 $201 −$192 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $207 −$196 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $101 −$95 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $190 −$180 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $200 −$191 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $416 +$470 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $57 −$54 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $74 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $131 −$125 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$181 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$182 +181%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $73 −$69 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $114 +$197 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $230 +$369 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $104 −$100 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $94 +$185 +197%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $157 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $194 −$33 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $172 −$164 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $199 +$274 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $96 −$91 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 24 $88 −$85 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $119 −$113 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $53 +$133 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $78 +$112 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $84 −$80 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 03 $146 +$112 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 03 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 03 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 03 $33 −$31 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 03 $27 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 03 $49 −$46 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 03 $101 −$96 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 03 $71 −$67 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 03 $48 +$172 +362%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 03 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 03 $48 −$45 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $131 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $47 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $17 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $157 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $280 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $308 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $93 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $202 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $201 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $44 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $47 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $53 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $158 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $94 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $96 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $200 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $693 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $57 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $210 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $18 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $175 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $206 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $79 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $74 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.36 · official $61.36 (match) · 1556 history records