Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:39:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A2
0xa260…f16f
world · 46 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$10 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage530d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 2 History 44 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$4
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 17¢ 17¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $89 +$3 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $40 +$2 +5%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $4 $0 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $159 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $38 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $80 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $84 −$2 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $86 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $33 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $6 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $44 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $43 $0 +1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $3 $0 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $45 −$3 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 20 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $44 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $52 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $44 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $89 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $50 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $28 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 -8%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $21 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $247 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $139 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $88 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -9%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will France win Eurovision 2025? Feb 28 $2 $0 +9%
Drake vs. Illinois State Feb 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Nebraska Omaha vs. San Diego State Feb 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Juventus win the Serie A? Jan 19 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 61% −$2
other 17% +$2
sports 13% −$8
politics 7% −$1
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $10 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $6 10h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $2 10h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $7 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $49 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $46 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $12 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $30 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 58¢ $7 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 58¢ $29 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 58¢ $4 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $44 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $44 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $40 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $38 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.2% -7.5% 75% 0% -7.5%
≤30d 30 +0.4% -9.1% 37% 3% -9.5%
≤90d 36 +0.3% -9.2% 33% 3% -9.5%
all 44 -6.5% -15.4% 36% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 2% -10.0%
10% -23.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -30.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -37.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.06 · official $10.03 (match) · 177 history records