Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:16:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A2 0xa25c…3ab2 crypto 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$242 (+10%) realized +$242 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%73W / 30L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$207
7 days+$217
14 days+$217
30 days+$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$177
other 2% −$30
sports 1% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 +44.6% +30.8% 71% 44% -1.6%
≤30d 103 +42.8% +29.2% 71% 43% -2.0%
≤90d 103 +42.8% +29.2% 71% 43% -2.0%
all 103 +42.8% +29.2% 71% 43% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.2% 43% -2.0%
10% +16.8% 33% -11.4%
15% +5.5% 22% -20.0%
20% -4.8% 18% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +76% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$242
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses73 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage21d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$19 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$10 +190%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $78 −$59 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 14h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 18h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 18h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 18h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 265 history records