Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:22:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A2 0xa259…3809 sports 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$301 (-1%) realized −$301 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%28W / 77L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$117
7 days−$119
14 days−$119
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$174
other 37% +$308
economics 10% −$3
sports 4% −$114
world 4% −$119
crypto 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -22.1% -29.5% 20% 0% -29.4%
≤30d 12 -10.6% -19.1% 8% 0% -18.3%
≤90d 65 -1.1% -10.5% 18% 17% -9.4%
all 105 -6.5% -15.4% 27% 24% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 24% -9.8%
10% -23.5% 24% -18.4%
15% -30.9% 23% -26.3%
20% -37.7% 22% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$12 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$301
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses28 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage220d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $75 −$11 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $109 +$3 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $112 −$109 -98%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $195 −$2 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $16 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $18 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $569 −$11 -2%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $162 −$2 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $85 −$9 -10%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,319 −$2 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 07 $350 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $811 −$2 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $851 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,005 −$281 -28%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $153 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $128 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $370 +$169 +46%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $330 +$349 +106%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $316 −$3 -1%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $320 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $590 −$2 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $105 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $110 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 01 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $231 −$1 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $120 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $97 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $501 −$2 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $245 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $280 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $120 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $290 −$9 -3%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $440 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $150 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Apr 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) Apr 24 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $20 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $7 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $14 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $49 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $40 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $42 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $19 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $43 3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $20 3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $24 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $2 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $20 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $3 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $2 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $50 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $35 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $111 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $68 19d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 19d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 19d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 19d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 398 history records