Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:04:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A2 0xa259…6597 weather 1113 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$495 (+3%) realized +$556 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate72%793W / 305L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day30.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$378now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$205
7 days−$1,443
14 days−$1,083
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$321
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 216 -48.8% -53.6% 37% 35% -41.3%
≤30d 453 -5.4% -14.4% 70% 68% -10.7%
≤90d 1098 +0.5% -9.1% 72% 70% -7.0%
all 1098 +0.5% -9.1% 72% 70% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 70% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 60% -15.9%
15% -25.7% 39% -24.0%
20% -33.0% 16% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$378
Realized+$556
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses793 / 305
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1098 / 1113
History coverage60d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 1098 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? No 73¢ 100¢ $29 $40 +$11 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? No 73¢ 100¢ $29 $40 +$11 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? No 85¢ 100¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? No 73¢ 80¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? No 90¢ 97¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 19? No 71¢ 72¢ $30 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 19? No 85¢ 88¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? No 94¢ 100¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? No 73¢ 75¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? No 73¢ 74¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? No 69¢ 68¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? No 64¢ 42¢ $29 $20 −$10 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? No 66¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? No 63¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? No 63¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $30 +$13 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 18 $30 +$16 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $30 +$13 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $29 +$19 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$11 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$15 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $29 +$16 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $31 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $30 +$16 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $30 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $29 +$9 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $31 +$6 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$15 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$11 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$8 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$15 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$6 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$11 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $30 −$29 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 +$8 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $28 +$10 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $31 +$14 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $30 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $30 +$10 +33%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $30 +$16 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $29 +$27 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$11 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$5 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$14 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $28 +$10 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$12 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$12 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$14 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $30 +$14 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $30 +$16 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 15 $31 +$10 +33%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $30 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$16 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? BUY No 69¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 73¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 71¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 73¢ $30 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $30 11h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $30 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 63¢ $30 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $30 35h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 63¢ $30 36h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 85¢ $30 39h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 63¢ $30 41h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $28 43h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $30 43h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $30 44h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 64¢ $30 45h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $31 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $29 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $29 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 64¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 53¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 71¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 64¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 64¢ $29 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $378.35 · official $378.35 (match) · 2915 history records