Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:13:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa255…2ffc sports 969 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$250 (+3%) realized +$236 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%384W / 551L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$888now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$136
7 days−$106
14 days+$63
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 29% +$358
sports 26% −$174
world 15% −$39
other 10% +$33
weather 8% −$75
politics 4% +$24
tech 4% +$96
crypto 4% −$46
economics 1% +$9
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -26.3% -33.3% 28% 26% -20.3%
≤30d 137 -15.7% -23.7% 35% 33% -6.8%
≤90d 709 -2.8% -12.0% 41% 39% -5.1%
all 935 -5.2% -14.2% 41% 38% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 38% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 36% -16.6%
15% -29.9% 33% -24.7%
20% -36.8% 29% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$888
Realized+$236
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses384 / 551
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions34
Markets (closed)935 / 969
History coverage104d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 935 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 67¢ 87¢ $75 $98 +$23 (+31%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? No 69¢ 68¢ $86 $84 −$2 (-2%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes 70¢ 80¢ $63 $72 +$9 (+14%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 55¢ 56¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+3%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No 70¢ 83¢ $59 $70 +$11 (+19%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 62¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No 60¢ 60¢ $46 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 46¢ 49¢ $42 $45 +$3 (+7%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 56¢ 84¢ $26 $39 +$13 (+49%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? No 55¢ 84¢ $24 $36 +$12 (+52%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 49¢ 46¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-6%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
UK Recession in 2026? No 50¢ 58¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 27¢ 24¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-13%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Spain snap election called in 2026? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-9%)
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? Yes 16¢ 8¢ $21 $10 −$11 (-53%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 36¢ 35¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15? Yes 42¢ 57¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $44 +$14 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $83 −$6 -7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 15 $64 +$76 +118%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 15 $48 −$44 -92%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $3 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -88%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 14 $51 −$35 -70%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 14 $187 −$97 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $4 −$2 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $7 +$6 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$8 +406%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $4 +$5 +112%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $48 +$42 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $3 −$2 -67%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $24 +$2 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 12 $16 −$13 -77%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $25 −$20 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $10 +$9 +87%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $4 +$5 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +185%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $12 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 10 $3 +$4 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 09 $3 −$1 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $1 31m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $9 31m
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 44m
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 52m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $58 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $13 55m
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $2 57m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $10 58m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $18 59m
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 58¢ $9 1h
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $9 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 52¢ $16 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $2 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 1h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $45 1h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 52¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $140 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 45¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $50 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $887.55 · official $887.56 (match) · 2653 history records